Autoregressive Distributed Lag Research Articles

Analyzing the dynamics of monetary policy and economic growth in Ethiopia: an autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) approach

Numerous studies conducted by various scholars have aimed to ascertain the impact of monetary policy on economic growth. However, these empirical investigations have not reached a unanimous consensus. Therefore, this study analyzes the effect of monetary policy. To address this objective, this study employed ARDL and error correction model (ECM) based on annual data from 1993 to 2022. Granger causality test was also employed to check the direction of causal effects of one variable on the other variable. All required pre and post estimation tests were performed and verified that the model was statistically viable. The study revealed that, in the short run, deposit interest rate, reserve required amount, and open market operation have positive and statistically significant effects on real GDP growth of Ethiopia; however, money supply has negative and statistically significant effects on real GDP growth of Ethiopia. In the long run, money supply has positive and statistically significant effects on real GDP growth of Ethiopia; however, deposit interest rate and reserve required have negative and statistically significant effects on real GDP growth of Ethiopia. To sum up, in the short run, contractionary monetary policy was promising, and in the long run, expansionary monetary policy was favorable for economic growth. The Granger causality test result shows that there is bidirectional causality between monetary policy and economic growth; except there was a unidirectional relationship between deposit interest rate and economic growth. Ultimately, this research suggests the following policy recommendation: for short-term economic enhancement, it is advisable for the government to opt for a contractionary monetary policy rather than an expansionary one. On the other hand, for long-term economic improvement, an expansionary monetary policy is more favorable than a contractionary one.

Integrating fintech in natural resource management: Assessing the EKC hypothesis for sustainable development in E7 countries

The main objective of the study is to examine the impact of green finance, fintech and mineral resources on environmental sustainability is of great importance in the E7 nations namely Brazil, China, India, Indonesia, Mexico, Russia, and Turkey. The E7 countries are selected as these countries are mineral rich countries and account for a major portion of global mineral export. The data of twenty-five years spanning from 1998 to 2022 is used for the analysis. The study has employed the three measures namely carbon dioxide emissions, ecological footprint, green economic growth to conceptualize the sustainable growth. For the data analysis the study has employed the nonlinear auto-regressive distributed lag (NL-ARDL) model. The results of the study highlights that encouraging and promoting the green finance, and fintech in E7 countries promote sustainable growth, by reducing CO2 emission, improving economic growth, and reducing ecological footprints. The results of the study are in line with the proposition of EKC hypothesis. Moreover, the results of the study also highlight that mineral resource abundance have significant impact of environment sustainability. The study suggests that E7 countries should establish dedicated funds or subsidies to help businesses transition to green technologies and practices, especially for small and medium-sized enterprises. Fintech is seen as a transformative tool in advancing environmental sustainability by improving financial service efficiency and offering new green investment platforms in E7 countries. This could help mitigate initial costs associated with green technology adoption.

Testing the validity of feminization U-shape hypothesis for female labor force participation and economic development in Pakistan: a reexamination

Purpose The participation of females in economic activity remains a challenge, and received a lot of attention for a better labor policy discourse. The empirical research focused widely on the relationship between female labor force participation (FLFP) and economic development, called the feminization U-shape hypothesis. However, the linear/nonlinear relationship has been questioned due to empirical and methodological anomalies. Hence, this study aims to extend the previous work by reexamining this relationship in Pakistan. Design/methodology/approach The annual data from 1980 to 2021, the unit root tests augmented Dickey–Fuller and Phillips and Perron, the conventional autoregressive distributed lag bound test approach by including the quadratic-term of GDP per capita and the novel Sasabuchi–Lind–Mehlum (SLM) U test (2010) used for empirical estimation. Findings The findings revealed the prospects of a long-run nonlinear association between FLFP and economic development in Pakistan. However, an inverse U-shape exists between the female labor force participation rate (FLFPR) and GDP per capita, predicting that FLFP may decline in the future. Research limitations/implications The traditional feminization U-shape hypothesis has little empirical support in the case of Pakistan. Therefore, the Government of Pakistan should enhance the enabling environment for females through the provision of better job opportunities, technical skills, on-the-job training and social security benefits during all phases of economic development. Originality/value The conventional approach of testing U-shape is insufficient. To the best of the authors’ knowledge, therefore, this study incorporated a wider data set in a time series that is less evident, an advanced methodology SLM U test (2010), to validate the feminization U-shape hypothesis in Pakistan for the first time.

Evaluating the Kuznets curve relationship between economic growth and child labor in an emerging economy

PurposeThis study aims to test the Kuznets curve between economic growth and child labor, along with the influence of exports, household size and rural population in the context of Pakistan.Design/methodology/approachTo achieve the research objective, this study applied the unit root test, bound co-integration test, and autoregressive distributive lags (ARDL) method for the period of 1972–2021.FindingsThe findings show an inverted U-shaped relationship between economic growth and child labor indicating that at the beginning stage of economic development, child labor increases due to lower per capita household and subsequently, in the long-run of economic development, child labor decreases due to the higher per capita households. Moreover, the results also show that exports, household size and rural population have a positive influence on increasing child labor.Research limitations/implicationsThe policymakers and government of Pakistan need to focus on long-term economic growth policies, ensure free quality education and cheap equipment which practices minimum manpower to reduce the threat of child labor.Social implicationsHaving long-run economic growth, the government of Pakistan need to equally benefit the households and the poor population to reduce child labor and enhance the social welfare of society.Originality/valueTo the best of the authors’ knowledge, this is the first study that investigates the Kuznets curve relationship between economic growth and child labor in the context of Pakistan. Moreover, this study contributes to the reduction in child labor through long-term economic growth in the context of Pakistan.Peer reviewThe peer review history for this article is available at: https://publons.com/publon/10.1108/IJSE-05-2023-0387

Investigating the Economic Dynamics of Mobile Money in Post-Conflict Economies: Empirical Evidence from Somalia

This study investigates the economic dynamics of mobile money in Somalia, focusing on its transformative potential to impact economic activities in the short and long term. Adopting a quantitative research design, the study utilizes secondary data from 2010 to 2022. The autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) approach is employed to assess the impact of mobile money on household consumption, real income, exports, and imports. Theoretical insights from the quantity theory of money further guide the examination of how mobile money influences economic activities. The findings demonstrate that mobile money has a significant positive effect on household consumption, real income, export growth, and import activity both in the short and long term. The study reveals that mobile money not only facilitates financial transactions but also enhances trade efficiency and promotes financial inclusion, thereby stimulating economic activities and growth. The study underscores the need for a supportive regulatory environment for mobile money services. It highlights that financial institutions and mobile money service providers should expand innovative services to include the unbanked population. By doing so, they can leverage mobile money to foster greater economic engagement and empowerment. Policymakers are encouraged to develop strategies that promote financial inclusion and economic development to harness the full potential of mobile money. This study enriches the existing literature by uniquely investigating the economic impacts of mobile money in Somalia, a post-conflict setting, thereby broadening the understanding of how financial technologies can catalyze economic activities and growth in similar contexts.

Effect of Longevity on Economic Growth, Accounting for Variability in Demographic Transition: Evidence for Pakistan using ARDL Bounds Testing Approach

Rising longevity due to access to better health services affects the growth and composition of the population differently than birth rates. In addition, empirical evidence of the effects of rising longevity on standards of living is ambiguous. From the perspective of developing nations, it is important to understand how rising longevity affects national prosperity, as this allows governments to develop programs for increasing investment in the health sector. This study explicitly tested varying intertemporal impacts of rising longevity on the GDP per capita of Pakistan between 1967 and 2020. An Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) bounds testing approach to cointegration was used to estimate and compare short-run and long-run estimates of longevity. The results indicated that a 1% increase in longevity increased the growth rate of GDP per capita in Pakistan by 0.64% in the long-run. In addition, a 1% increase in life expectancy at birth above 62 years increased economic growth by an additional 0.009%. In general, the estimated effect of increased longevity varied by stages of demographic transition in Pakistan.

The influence of green financing on renewable energy progress in India's tourism sector

ABSTRACT This study employs the Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) approach to assess the impact of green funding on sustainable energy practices in India's tourist sector from 2000 to 2022. Results indicate that green bonds significantly and favourably influence long-term environmental sustainability, with negligible immediate effects. The Consumer Price Index adversely affects sustainability in both short and long terms. To enhance sustainability, recommended policy measures include increased regulatory supervision, transparent market information dissemination, eco-friendly fiscal policies, and the adoption of green building technologies. Supporting sustainable globalization, innovation, adaptation, and eco-tourism regionalism can greatly benefit India's tourism industry. The study offers valuable insights for policymakers aiming to promote environmental sustainability in the sector.

Cement production and CO2 emission cycles in the USA: evidence from MS-ARDL and MS-VARDL causality methods with century-long data.

The cement industry is among the top three polluters among all industries and the examination of the nonlinear and cointegration dynamics between cement production and CO2 emissions has not been explored. Focusing on this research gap, the study employs a novel Markov-switching autoregressive distributed lag (MS-ARDL) model and its generalization to vector error correction, the MS-VARDL model, for regime-dependent causality testing. The new method allows the determination of nonlinear long-run and short-run relations, regime duration, and cement-induced-CO2 emission cycles in the USA for a historically long dataset covering 1900-2021. Empirical findings point to nonlinearity in all series and nonlinear cointegration between cement production and cement-induced CO2 emissions. The phases of regimes coincide closely with NBER's official economic cycles for the USA. The second regime, characterized by expansions, lasts twice as long relative to the first, the contractionary regime, which contains severe economic recessions, as well as economic crises, the 1929 Great Depression, the 1973 Oil Crisis, the 2009 Great Recession, and the COVID-19 Shutdown and Wars, including WWI and II. In both regimes, the adverse effects of cement production on CO2 emissions cannot be rejected with varying degrees both in the long and the short run. Markov regime-switching vector autoregressive distributed lag (MS-VARDL) causality tests confirm unidirectional causality from cement production to CO2 emissions in both regimes. The traditional Granger causality test produces an over-acceptance of causality in a discussed set of cases. Industry-level policy recommendations include investments to help with the shift to green kiln technologies and energy efficiency. National-level policies on renewable energy and carbon capture are also vital considering the energy consumption of cement production.

Navigating prosperity: the impact of seaport efficiency on economic growth in Ghana’s maritime landscape

PurposeThis study aims to investigate the impact of seaport efficiency on economic growth in Ghana over the period 2006–2020.Design/methodology/approachComprehensive methodology, diverse data analysis techniques, including Augmented Dickey–Fuller tests, autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) modeling and Granger Causality, were applied to explore the intricate relationship between Seaport Efficiency and Economic Growth.FindingsThe findings reveal a statistically significant and positive association between seaport efficiency and GDP, underscoring the crucial role of efficient seaport operations in actively stimulating economic growth. Beyond seaport efficiency, influential factors such as capital, human capital, knowledge spillover and productive capacities were identified, contributing to the dynamics of economic growth.Research limitations/implicationsThe Granger Causality Test solidifies seaport efficiency as a robust predictor of GDP fluctuations, emphasizing its significance in economic forecasting. Notably, this study contributes to the existing body of knowledge with its nuanced exploration of the intricate relationship between seaport efficiency and economic growth in the specific context of Ghana.Practical implicationsThis study’s implications extend beyond academia, offering invaluable guidance for policymakers and planners. It serves as a comprehensive roadmap for informed decision-making, emphasizing the pivotal role of efficient seaports in charting a trajectory for enduring and resilient economic progress in the nation.Originality/valueWhile the broader theme has been explored in existing literature, the uniqueness of this study lies in its specific application to the Ghanaian context. The choice of Ghana, a nation where maritime transport handles over 90% of trade, underscores the significance of understanding seaport efficiency in this regional and economic setting. The study’s originality is reinforced by incorporating diverse economic variables, aligning with recommendations for a comprehensive analysis of factors influencing port performance.

Effect of Climate Change on Nigerian Economic Sustainability

Climate change is seen as a statistical variation that persists for an extended period, frequently for as long as a decade or more. Moreover, the issue of climate change which has gained global attention poses a serious threat to developing economy like Nigeria, which is characterized by widespread poverty as a result of economic instability. It is against this backdrop that this research is aimed at investigating the effect of climate change on Nigerian economic sustainability. The research made use of Autoregressive Distributive Lag (ARDL)/bond test approach and OLS estimation technique, while data for the period of 1990-2020 was collected. Changes in average temperature and carbon emission were used to capture climate change, while variation in exchange rate and agricultural production were used as control variables. The result of the analysis showed that the goodness-of-fit (R-Square) is 0.998. This means that 99.8% of the changes in the dependent variable (GDP) can be explained by the changes in the independent variables (CEM, AGRIC, EXR, TEMP). The annual speed of adjustment from short run to long run relationship is 34%. At F-statistic = 195.8052 and P value = 0.000, the model is statistically significant at 1% level. The results of the analysis further demonstrated that both in long-run and short-run, carbon emissions adversely affect Nigerian economic sustainability. Additionally, average atmospheric temperature was significantly related to sustainability of Nigerian economy in the short run. It was concluded that environmental stakeholders as well as Nigerian government should develop and enforce policies to reduce carbon emissions and forest depletion. Also, efforts should be made by government towards ensuring that policies that are environmentally friendly are made that can encourage agricultural production in order to reduce import of agricultural produce, thereby boosting economic growth.

Empowering Pakistan’s Economy: The Role of Health and Education in Shaping Labor Force Participation and Economic Growth

The labor force is a crucial factor in conducting economic activities, especially in labor-surplus countries like Pakistan. In this study, we explore the impact of labor force participation (LF) on economic growth (EG), with an emphasis on how this impact depends on the levels of health and education expenditures. We analyze time series data from Pakistan spanning from 1980 to 2022, using ARDL (Autoregressive Distributed Lag), ECM (Error Correction Model) and Granger causality techniques for empirical analysis. The ARDL results indicate that LF significantly boosts EG, both in the short and long run. Furthermore, the estimations reveal that better facilities for health and education strengthen the positive effects of LF on EG. This suggests a complementary relationship between health, education, and LF in driving EG. Moreover, our findings highlight the temporal significance of health and education: Health plays a more crucial role in the short run, while education’s impact is more substantial in the long run. Furthermore, the Granger causality results indicate that LF, health, and education significantly contribute to EG. It is advisable for the government to prioritize investments in the health and education sectors. This approach can empower individuals to actively and effectively participate in economic activities, eventually contributing to the overall economic output of the nation.

Rentierism—Political Instability Nexus: The Danger of Oil-producing Region Crisis in Nigeria

The growing popularity of the rentier state theory has made the focus on the impact of oil rents on political stability central for revealing how natural resource (including oil) windfalls link to the weakness of institutional quality in any resource-rich economy. Considering the core characteristic of a rentier state (such as Nigeria)—a distributive political economy—the article examines how the stability of Nigerian political system can be affected by oil rents over the period 1996–2021. Through the adoption of autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) bounds test to cointegration and vector error correction mechanism (VECM) for the test of long-run causality, the apparent effect of oil rents on Nigerian political development is reflected in the analyses and findings. Empirical evidence supports the oil impedes political stability assertion, as there is statistically valid negative association between oil rents and political stability in the short run and long run. It is demonstrated that oil wealth could offer greater incentives for civil conflicts, which have resulted in escalating political problems. In addition, the causality mechanism implies that the relationship found merely indicates association between oil rents and the level of political stability in the long term, and it is not causal. Thus, it is posited that through the adoption and implementation of sound policy measures, the escalation of conflicts would likely subside, especially in most oil-rich regions or states, whereas civil order could be promoted. It is, therefore, critical to enhancing fairness in the use and distribution of oil wealth, improving people’s welfare, particularly in the oil-producing communities and in general, ensuring that democratic principles in the management of resource windfalls are sustained. JEL: Q33, Q34, H56, H12

The Nexus Between Renewable Energy Consumption, Financial Development, and Trade Openness Based on Environmental Quality in Uganda: An Application of the ARDL

Environmental degradation is attributed to human activities associated with economic development. This study examines renewable energy consumption (REC), financial development (FD), trade openness, and environmental quality nexus in Uganda over the period 1990-2019 using the Autoregressive Distribution Lag (ARDL). Findings show that REC improves environmental quality both in the short and long run. In addition, while trade openness is negatively related to environmental quality in the short and long run, a negative correlation exists between FD and environmental quality only in the long run. Furthermore, economic growth has a positive relationship with environmental quality in the short run while in the long run, GDP2 improves environmental quality. However, the results from the study find no statistical relationship between FDI and environmental quality, and thus neither the pollution haven nor pollution halo hypotheses are confirmed in the Ugandan case. This paper does not only recommend investing more in renewable energy development to improve the quality of the environment but also in financial sector development to support investments that promote a low-carbon and green economy.

Globalization and capital formation in Nigeria

No country can achieve sustained economic growth without substantial investments in capital formation. Nigeria is rich in natural resources but due to inadequate capital and technology, these resources have not been fully tapped and maximized. This study seeks to provide another gate way to unlocking the dearth of capital formation for development by specifically investigating the impact of financial and trade globalization on capital formation in Nigeria within the period 1990–2022. Autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) technique was adopted for data analysis. The findings of this study indicate that while trade globalization has negative effect on capital formation in both the long run and short run respectively, financial globalization exerts negative effect on capital formation in the long run but a positive effect in the short run. Nevertheless, Financial and trade globalization exert detrimental effect on capital formation in the long run. A major policy recommendation is that Nigeria should play a key role in the African Continental Free Trade Area in order to boost her trade and financial competitiveness within Africa and so be able to lunch herself into the global space, and thus tap the potential benefits of trade and financial globalization.

Analyzing Nexus between Crude Oil, Gold, Dollar and Equity Markets with Structural Break: ARDL Evidence from India

This paper explores the price relations between the Crude oil, Gold, US dollar, and equities during several economic episodes. The long- and short-term causal relationships between asset markets are examined in this study. The research uses a ‘Vector Error Correction Model (VECM)’ and an ‘Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL)’ bounds test to examine monthly data from April 1999 to March 2022. The results demonstrate the weak connections between asset markets throughout the different sample periods. Furthermore, the integration of most markets is uneven and changes over time. The currency and equity markets are adjusting to the long-run equilibrium only at a slow pace. We suggest that systematic risk factors must be taken into account while jointly modeling market linkages. This study improves on previous research in the subject by demonstrating the time-varying effects of asset price links on portfolio optimizations in different economic episodes.

Decoding the Environmental Synergy in BRI Nations: Analyzing the Influence of Renewable Energy Adoption, Financial Evolution, FDI, and Capital Resilience on Sustainability

In response to escalating global concerns over environmental degradation, this study explores the intricate relationships between financial development (FD), foreign direct investment (FDI), capital adequacy, renewable energy consumption (REC) and environmental sustainability in BRI. We aim to provide nuanced insights into how these economic variables impact environmental quality, contributing to a comprehensive understanding of the complex interplay between economic development and environmental conservation. We aim to explore the associations between FD, FDI, REC, and capital adequacy, and environmental quality, emphasizing short-term and long-term dynamics. We employ the Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) model and conduct D-H causality tests to discern these variables' temporal and causal relationships. This methodology allows us to capture the complexities of the relationships and provide a robust analysis of their impacts on environmental sustainability. The findings reveal a positive long-run association between FD and environmental quality, suggesting that a well-developed financial sector may contribute positively to environmental outcomes. However, the short-run dynamics introduce complexity, indicating a potential immediate positive impact and raising questions about contextual factors influencing FD's contribution to increased carbon emissions. Shifting the focus to FDI and REC, our research uncovers a potential positive association with environmental quality in the long run. The short-run analysis introduces nuances, suggesting a potential negative impact, reflecting the mixed effects observed in previous studies, which underscores the importance of considering temporal dimensions and policy interventions to enhance the positive contributions of FDI and REC to environmental sustainability. Further, our study delves into the impact of capital adequacy on environmental sustainability, revealing a positive long-run association, which challenges negative associations, underlining the need for tailored policies to balance economic growth and environmental conservation. As a whole, our findings contribute quantitative evidence to guide policymakers in fostering incremental improvements over time, acknowledging the multifaceted nature of the relationships under consideration.

An Empirical Investigation of GDP, Industrialization, Population, Renewable Energy and CO2 Emission in Bangladesh: Bridging EKC-STIRPAT Models

This research paper explores the presence of the Environmental Kuznets Curve (EKC) in Bangladesh, delving into the intricate relationships among GDP, industrialization, renewable energy utilization, and CO2 emissions. Utilizing the Stochastic Impacts by Regression on Population, Affluence, and Technology (STIRPAT) model, our investigation spans the 1992 to 2021 timeframe, offering a comprehensive analysis of the interplay between these crucial factors in the context of Bangladesh's environmental sustainability. In this study, the F-bound test is utilized to establish the cointegration relationship among variables. And the short-run and long-run elasticity of explanatory variables is investigated by employing the Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) approach. This research also employed a pairwise granger causality test to explore the direction of causality between them. Empirical results prove the existence of a cointegration relationship among CO2 emission, GDP per capita, a quadratic form of GDP per capita, renewable energy, industrialization, and population. The findings provide strong support for the presence of the EKC in the case of Bangladesh. Besides that, significant inverse relationship was also obtained between CO2 emission and renewable energy consumption. Additionally, the study found the detrimental long-term effects of industrialization on the environment. The EKC hypothesis argues that Bangladesh can accomplish sustainable economic development. To attain the goal country should adopt appropriate government policies and ensure their implication. This study strongly advocates using sustainable energy sources and implementing regulations on pollutant industries.

Symmetric and Asymmetric Association Between Foreign Direct Investments and Macroeconomic Variables: An Ardl Approach

Objectives: The main objective of the study is to investigating the dynamic relationship between FDI and different Macro Economic Variables (MEVs) using the ARDL procedure, providing a more comprehensive understanding of the association between FDI and MEVs and to evaluate their relative importance for FDI. Methods: This study utilizes annual data from 1991 to 2021 from the World Bank (2021) and the Reserve Bank of India (2021). Data on GDP, Export, Inflation and interest rate, and FDI are collected from the World Bank. Autoregressive Distributive lag Model procedure has been used for the study in order to establish relationship between Macro economic variables and FDI. Results: Our methodological approach using ARDL model and finds: (a) a positive correlation between exports and FDI, (b) a negative impact of inflation and exchange rates on FDI in the long run. Non-linear ARDL analysis reveals the asymmetric impact of inflation and interest rate on FDI, which includes the effect of positive and negative shock of interest rate and inflation on FDI. d) 1% increase in inflation reduces FDI by 0.4% and if Inflation is reduced by 1%, FDI is increased by 0.2%. At the same time, the non-linear estimation of interest rates concludes that there is an asymmetric and significant association between interest rates and FDI. e) If Interest rate has increased by 1% FDI is decreased by 0.9% and if interest rate has reduced by 1% FDI has deceased by 1.63%. f) The causality analysis reveals that exports, GDP, and exchange rates are the significant economic variables that affect FDI. Conclusion: The study's findings have practical implications for policymakers and investors looking to attract more FDI in India. The results indicate that exports play a critical role in attracting FDI and that the government should focus on improving export performance to increase FDI inflows. Additionally, the study highlights the importance of controlling inflation and exchange rates to attract more foreign investment. The finding that interest rates have an asymmetric relationship with FDI suggests that policymakers should be cautious when implementing monetary policies that may impact interest rates. Overall, the study provides valuable insights for policymakers and investors looking to attract more FDI in India and highlights the importance of considering the country's macroeconomic conditions when making investment decisions.

Asymmetric Effect of Shadow Economy on Environmental Pollution in Egypt: Evidence from Bootstrap NARDL Technique

This study examines the asymmetric effect of shadow economy (SE) on environmental pollution in Egypt during the 1970 and 2022 period. Using the bootstrap nonlinear autoregressive distributed lag (NARDL) bounds-testing approach, the study presents evidence of nonlinear cointegrating relationship between environmental degradation (carbon emission) and shadow economic activities (alongside globalisation, urbanisation, size of economic activity, industrial growth). In addition, the results demonstrate that the impact of shadow economy on environmental pollution (Env) is nonlinear, with the positive shock in shadow economy promoting environmental degradation and negative shocks promoting environmental quality, both in the short- and long-runs. However, the study discovered that the magnitude of the impact of the SE on Env is larger in the short-run. This is further validated by the dynamic nonlinear ARDL simulations technique which demonstrates that the short-run effect of the SE on Env is large. Additionally, the results suggest that income growth, urbanisation, and industrial growth are important drivers of environmental pollution. Therefore, the study recommends the adoption, and most importantly implementation, of policies and strategies geared towards reducing the shadow economy, and consequently environmental pollution.

The crucial roles of ICT, renewable energy sources, industrialization, and institutional quality in achieving environmental sustainability in BRICS.

The BRICS countries-Brazil, Russia, India, China, and South Africa-are committed to achieving United Nations Sustainable Development Goal 13, which focuses on mitigating climate change. To attain this goal, it is crucial to emphasize the significance of ICT, renewable energy sources, industrialization, and institutional quality. This study contributes to the literature by examining the potential role of these factors in environmental sustainability in the BRICS economies from 2000 to 2021, utilizing cross-sectional augmented autoregressive distributed lag (CS-ARDL) estimation and other novel econometric techniques. Accordingly, the study suggests that BRICS governments and policymakers prioritize the use of ICT in the industrial and institutional sectors to achieve faster environmental sustainability in the short-run, as per the CS-ARDL results. However, the study advises caution in the long-term as the interaction between ICT and renewable energy sources, industrialization, and institutional quality may not favour environmental quality. Although the renewable energy sources interaction with ICT may not yield immediate progress, strong measures need to be taken to ensure that short-term gains are not nullified. In conclusion, the study highlights the potential of ICT, renewable energy sources, industrialization, and institutional quality in achieving environmental sustainability in the BRICS countries, while recommending cautious measures in the long run to safeguard the progress made.